Data study
The World Cup of Coffee
If the World Cup were decided by coffee, who lifts the trophy on July 19? We scored all 48 qualified nations on four coffee metrics: how much coffee people drink, how many cafes they have per head, how much coffee the country grows, and what a cappuccino costs relative to local prices. Then we took the actual knockout bracket and played every real fixture as a coffee matchup. The better coffee nation advances. No penalties, no VAR, just beans.
The result
Switzerland wins the World Cup of Coffee with a Coffee World Ranking of 54.0 out of 100. Scroll down for the full bracket, every matchup, and the complete 48-nation table. Journalists: the dataset and graphics are free to use with attribution and a link.
Every matchup, called by coffee
Round of 16, still to be played when we ran the numbers
Argentina 14.2 · Egypt 5.2Argentina advances
A cappuccino runs $3.52 in Argentina against $1.56 in Egypt. Coffee World Ranking: 14.2 to 5.2.
Reality check: Argentina won the real match. Coffee called it.
Switzerland 54.0 · Colombia 36.4Switzerland advances
Switzerland drinks 8.8 kg of coffee per person per year to Colombia's 2.6 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 54.0 to 36.4.
Reality check: Switzerland won the real match. Coffee called it.
Quarterfinals
France 38.6 · Morocco 23.7France advances
France drinks 5.5 kg of coffee per person per year to Morocco's 1.7 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 38.6 to 23.7.
Spain 39.9 · Belgium 42.2Belgium advances
Belgium drinks 6.2 kg of coffee per person per year to Spain's 4.1 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 39.9 to 42.2.
Norway 53.2 · England 36.4Norway advances
Norway drinks 8.8 kg of coffee per person per year to England's 3.8 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 53.2 to 36.4.
Argentina 14.2 · Switzerland 54.0Switzerland advances
Switzerland drinks 8.8 kg of coffee per person per year to Argentina's 1.1 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 14.2 to 54.0.
Semifinals
France 38.6 · Belgium 42.2Belgium advances
Belgium drinks 6.2 kg of coffee per person per year to France's 5.5 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 38.6 to 42.2.
Norway 53.2 · Switzerland 54.0Switzerland advances
A cappuccino runs $6.30 in Switzerland against $5.38 in Norway. Coffee World Ranking: 53.2 to 54.0.
The final
Belgium 42.2 · Switzerland 54.0Switzerland advances
Switzerland drinks 8.8 kg of coffee per person per year to Belgium's 6.2 kg. Coffee World Ranking: 42.2 to 54.0.
The coffee top 10
The full ranking of all 48 qualified nations is in the table below and in the downloadable dataset.
| # | Nation | Score | kg/person/yr | World Cup fate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 60.4 | 5.4 | out in the round of 16 |
| 2 | Sweden | 58.9 | 10.3 | eliminated |
| 3 | Croatia | 58.5 | 5.8 | eliminated |
| 4 | Brazil | 57.8 | 6.3 | out in the round of 16 |
| 5 | Switzerland | 54.0 | 8.8 | in the quarterfinals |
| 6 | Norway | 53.2 | 8.8 | in the quarterfinals |
| 7 | Austria | 52.5 | 7.9 | eliminated |
| 8 | New Zealand | 50.7 | 5.8 | eliminated |
| 9 | Canada | 50.4 | 7.8 | out in the round of 16 |
| 10 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 47.5 | 5.7 | eliminated |
All 48 nations
| # | Nation | Score | Consumption kg | Cafes /100k | Production (k bags) | Cappuccino USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 60.4 | 5.4 | 135.2 | · | 2.14 |
| 2 | Sweden | 58.9 | 10.3 | 39.5 | · | 4.83 |
| 3 | Croatia | 58.5 | 5.8 | 135.1 | · | 2.55 |
| 4 | Brazil | 57.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 63,000 | 2.03 |
| 5 | Switzerland | 54.0 | 8.8 | 42.6 | · | 6.30 |
| 6 | Norway | 53.2 | 8.8 | 45.3 | · | 5.38 |
| 7 | Austria | 52.5 | 7.9 | 59.4 | · | 4.73 |
| 8 | New Zealand | 50.7 | 5.8 | 69.2 | · | 3.35 |
| 9 | Canada | 50.4 | 7.8 | 30.5 | · | 3.74 |
| 10 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 47.5 | 5.7 | 64.0 | · | 1.69 |
| 11 | Australia | 47.2 | 5.9 | 56.0 | · | 3.90 |
| 12 | Netherlands | 46.2 | 7.0 | 35.1 | · | 4.27 |
| 13 | Germany | 44.0 | 6.3 | 40.7 | · | 4.13 |
| 14 | Belgium | 42.2 | 6.2 | 32.9 | · | 4.22 |
| 15 | Spain | 39.9 | 4.1 | 49.2 | · | 2.43 |
| 16 | France | 38.6 | 5.5 | 25.2 | · | 3.93 |
| 17 | Czechia | 37.0 | 4.7 | 37.9 | · | 3.24 |
| 18 | Scotland | 36.4 | 3.8 | 57.5 | · | 4.79 |
| 19 | England | 36.4 | 3.8 | 57.5 | · | 4.79 |
| 20 | Colombia | 36.4 | 2.6 | 7.8 | 13,800 | 2.10 |
| 21 | USA | 36.2 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 50 | 5.43 |
| 22 | Korea Republic | 32.0 | 3.9 | 24.8 | · | 3.41 |
| 23 | Tunisia | 30.8 | 2.6 | 25.5 | · | 0.96 |
| 24 | Japan | 30.6 | 3.2 | 22.8 | · | 3.08 |
| 25 | Algeria | 30.0 | 2.7 | 10.0 | · | 0.84 |
| 26 | Mexico | 27.4 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 3,903 | 3.75 |
| 27 | Jordan | 26.5 | 5.0 | 3.9 | · | 3.63 |
| 28 | Ecuador | 24.4 | 1.3 | 11.6 | 350 | 2.58 |
| 29 | Morocco | 23.7 | 1.7 | 16.6 | · | 1.70 |
| 30 | Panama | 20.5 | 2.3 | 8.0 | 80 | 3.90 |
| 31 | Saudi Arabia | 19.9 | 2.7 | 3.7 | · | 3.62 |
| 32 | Iraq3/4 | 19.0 | · | 7.1 | · | 2.65 |
| 33 | Haiti3/4 | 17.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 346.6 | · |
| 34 | Uzbekistan3/4 | 14.3 | · | 9.4 | · | 2.09 |
| 35 | Argentina | 14.2 | 1.1 | 10.4 | · | 3.52 |
| 36 | South Africa | 14.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | · | 2.34 |
| 37 | Uruguay | 14.0 | 0.6 | 6.7 | · | 4.25 |
| 38 | Cote d'Ivoire3/4 | 13.1 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 1,300 | · |
| 39 | Qatar3/4 | 12.5 | · | 10.5 | · | 5.41 |
| 40 | Turkiye | 7.5 | 1.2 | 15.2 | · | 3.55 |
| 41 | Congo DR3/4 | 7.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 200 | · |
| 42 | Egypt | 5.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | · | 1.56 |
| 43 | Cabo Verde2/4 | 5.2 | · | 12.2 | · | · |
| 44 | Iran3/4 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 4.8 | · | · |
| 45 | Paraguay3/4 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 20 | · |
| 46 | Senegal3/4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | · | · |
| 47 | Ghana3/4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 14.5 | · |
| 48 | Curacao2/4 | 0.0 | · | 0.0 | · | · |
· means no data from our sources for that nation and metric. Those nations are scored on the metrics they have (weights renormalize).
How we did this
Four metrics, weighted: coffee consumption per person (35 percent, USDA and ICO), mapped cafes per 100,000 people (20 percent, OpenStreetMap), green coffee production (15 percent, USDA and ICO), and cappuccino price (15 percent, Numbeo). Each is normalized to 100 across the field, and every number carries its source and year in the dataset. A planned Google Trends metric was dropped because Google blocks programmatic access. We would rather drop a metric than invent one.
This is the playful sibling of our data work, and we say so openly: OpenStreetMap coverage varies by country, Numbeo is crowd-sourced, and the EU consumption figures are the latest the ICO publishes per country. Every judgment call is written up in the full methodology. Fact-checking a number? Email hello@baristabench.com. We answer.
Download the full dataset (CSV) with per-value sources, or grab the bracket graphic. Both are free to publish with attribution and a link to this page.
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